Evaluation of the applicability of nonparametric regression mathematical models for assessing cause-and-effect relationships between drinking water quality and population morbidity

Evaluation of the applicability of regression models to establish a relationship between drinking water quality (samples not corresponding to chemical indicators) and morbidity based on analysis of data from social-hygienic monitoring over 11 years (2013-2023) period in the Republic of Bashkortostan was conducted. Statistically significant relationships were identified between poor-quality water in terms of chemical indicators and the following diseases: angina pectoris, diseases of the circulatory system, and diseases of the musculoskeletal system. Further research with larger datasets, analysis of specific pollutants, and consideration of additional risk factors is needed to confirm these links. Enhanced monitoring of both the chemical composition of water and population morbidity is necessary for implementing targeted measures to improve the situation.

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